Will Russia Go to War

The biggest event in global politics has been the developments in the last week between Ukraine and Russia.

Due to the fall of the pro Russia government in Ukraine, the dangerous tone between the two nations has been ever increasing.

However, it is the belief of the Bluntview that Putins Russia will not go to all out war against Ukraine. This is predominantly based on the three reasons as stated below;

1. There will be immense global backlash against Russia:
Russia will need to forget being the venue for the Olympics or any other major global event for awhile to come. Canada has already pulled out of the upcoming G8 meeting in Russia due to the developments. On top of this, there will be an inevitable push by the EU to increase gas imports of any other means possible to further strain Russia’s biggest export and single biggest contributor to its economy. Israel and Azerbaijan are possible up and coming markets to replace a portion of Russian gas to West Europe. An attack on Ukraine will almost certainly also affect Russia’s relationship with other neighbours and ex Soviet states in a negative form. No country will feel comfortable, from Azerbaijan to Belarus to Kazakhstan, of having Russian troops potentially enter their sovereign lands, based on no international legal basis justifications by Russia. The inevitable result will be an increase in nations shouldering closer ties to the EU and the US. Hawkish elements in the Russian military and political sphere will no doubt see war against Ukraine as a warning to those seeking closer ties to the West. However, as modern history with the Sovet Union and Latin America-US shows, such a stance generally has the opposite affect.

2. Economic Outcomes:
Russian leadership may portray the potential taking of Crimea as a national pride achievement, however, as West Germany knows well, it is not easy just to assimilate or merge a new region. Beyond the strategical advantage of having Crimea (Russia already has a naval fleet on the waters of the Black Sea) it would seem that Crimea will be a significant burden on the economy of Russia. More of a headache of loaning $15 billion to Ukraine to halt the uprising. This could be why Russia was rather quick to dismiss any talk of Ukraine breaking up, saying it is committed to Ukraine maintaining its current borders.

3. Ukraine is no Georgia:
Ukraine has already declared that any troop movements into Ukrainian territory will be considered an act of war. Furthermore, it has placed a national alert for all reservists to be on call. Earlier in the week, the Financial Times reported that there was whispers in Russian military corridors that going to war and coming on top will almost be an impossible task. Not to mention the immense damage it would cause to Russia’s global image, and the resulting collateral damage even if Russia won militarily. Ukraine is a much larger, wealthier and powerful nation (in military terms) than what Russia had to deal with in its attacks against Georgia in 2008.

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